Easier Markets

Formulas#

• Easy market = proven demand × weak or unhappy leaders × room for a small player.
• Customers needed = target yearly revenue ÷ yearly price. If that's under ~1% of the market you can reach, the goal is realistic.
• Good timing = demand rising faster than supply.
• Market > product > team. The market decides most of the outcome. (Marc Andreessen)

Demand (1–12)#

1. Money already flowing > money that has to start flowing.
2. Measurable demand (search volume, installs, reviews, job posts) > demand you have to imagine.
3. Several profitable competitors > none. Zero competitors usually means zero market.
4. Competitors with public pricing or revenue > secret ones. You can benchmark before you start.
5. Rising demand > flat or falling demand.
6. Demand pushed by an outside force (a law, a platform shift, new technology) > demand pushed only by your marketing.
7. A need that comes back every month > a one-time need.
8. A need tied to making money > a need tied to a hobby.
9. A global need, in one language > a local need in many languages.
10. A need that survives recessions (saving costs, compliance, revenue) > a luxury.
11. Customers who switch tools > customers locked in for decades.
12. A job that stays the same for years > a job that changes every quarter.

Competition (13–25)#

13. Old, slow or expensive leaders > young, hungry ones.
14. Leaders moving upmarket > leaders fighting over the bottom.
15. Many small players > a winner-takes-all market.
16. No network effects protecting the leader > strong network effects.
17. Reviews full of the same complaints > happy customers.
18. Competitors that ignore a segment > competitors that serve everyone well.
19. Competing on fit and features > competing on price. A solo founder can't win a price war.
20. Easy to switch away from the leader > hard to switch.
21. "Simpler and good enough" wins > only the best wins.
22. Room for a niche version > a general tool that already fits every niche.
23. The platform owner won't build it > the platform owner competes with you.
24. Many ways to win (niche, simplicity, service, price model) > one way to win (scale).
25. Competitors with weak marketing > marketing machines.

Size and economics (26–38)#

26. Needing under 1% of the reachable market > needing 20% of it.
27. Buyers who accept a high price > buyers who only accept low prices.
28. Customers with business revenue > consumers.
29. High margins (software) > thin margins (hardware, services, ads).
30. Customers who stay for years > customers who stay for months.
31. Room to grow inside each account > accounts that never grow.
32. Cheap customer acquisition (intent search, communities) > paid ads only.
33. Neighboring markets to grow into > a dead end.
34. Simple payments (card, global) > invoices and local payment systems.
35. Light regulation > licenses and audits.
36. Short sales cycles > year-long ones.
37. Buyers used to subscriptions > buyers who expect to pay once.
38. Economics you can check before building > economics you only learn after you scale.

Timing and fit (39–50)#

39. The early-majority stage > too early (only enthusiasts) or too late (only holdouts).
40. A recent shock (price hike, shutdown, acquisition, policy change) > a calm market.
41. New technology making old solutions 10× cheaper > nothing changing.
42. A new platform with few apps > a crowded store.
43. A new generation changing how the job is done > practices frozen for decades.
44. A market you know from the inside > one you've only read about.
45. A market where your existing assets count (audience, code, reputation) > a fresh start.
46. Your language and culture > a foreign one.
47. A market you respect > one you look down on. Customers can feel it.
48. AI helps you serve them more than it helps them replace you > AI will make the product free.
49. Reputation that builds over years > a market reset by every trend.
50. One market at a time > several at once.